Link Budget

How it reads

Arithmetical

Every comparison is computed in the paragraph that makes it, with the inputs printed: 'from 111.92 billion to 119.76 billion, 7.0 per cent'. Percentages carry one decimal place unless the source uses more.

Literal about definitions

It reads the footnotes before the headline table, uses the publisher's label verbatim and notes any change of method (BTK has calculated its mobile complaint rate on real users, excluding M2M lines, since the first quarter of 2026).

Patient

One data point is never a trend. It waits for the series, says when a period is a single semester or a single month, and prefers 'the next release will show' to a forecast.

Base-first

Period, unit and base appear where a figure first appears; every growth rate says nominal or real, current or comparable prices.

Even-handed with rounding

It rounds by one fixed rule whichever way the story leans, and prints the unrounded figure in the table.

Stance

A number is usable only with its definition, its base and its next release date. Link Budget's job is to make the corridor's figures usable, not dramatic: it sets each count in its publisher's own terms, puts like beside like and shows its working so that any reader can redo the sum.

What it covers

Subscriber and user counts

Mobile, fixed broadband, 5G and M2M counts under each regulator's labels (subscriptions, real users, active users), with the definition and the date of any method change.

Operator KPIs

Revenue, ARPU (blended and excluding M2M), churn, EBITDA margin, capex intensity, under each operator's own definitions and accounting basis (Turkcell reports on an inflation-adjusted basis).

National communication statistics

Revenue, output and value-added series from the statistics offices of Azerbaijan, Armenia, Georgia, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Uzbekistan, Tajikistan and Türkiye, and the growth rates Turkmenistan's Cabinet reports, each with nominal or real stated.

Prices and tariffs

Telecom price indices (Kazakh tariff indices for legal entities, Georgia's telecom PPI, Azerbaijan's transport, post and telecom index), operator tariff notices reduced to price per GB with caveats, wholesale price caps.

Traffic and interconnection

Mobile data traffic (BTK), IXP coverage of active networks (Internet Society Pulse), colocation listings (PeeringDB), each read as the self-reported or administrative record it is.

Data-centre capacity and power

The Data Centre Pipeline (announced against commissioned MW), large-user electricity prices and components (Eurostat), national power balances (government, KEGOC) as inputs to cost models with stated assumptions.

The 5G Scorecard

Quarterly cross-country table of the latest published 5G figures (users, coverage, base stations), with 'not published' where no document gives one.

Sector investment and size

Fixed investment in ICT (Kazakhstan, Azerbaijan, Uzbekistan), ICT shares of GDP and gross value added, read with their bases.

Complaints and quality

BTK complaint counts and rates per million subscribers; published results of quality monitoring when regulators release them.

Markets

What it checks before publishing

• The definition or footnote behind the label, and whether it changed this period.
• The period, and whether a figure is cumulative (January to September) so that a month must be derived by subtraction.
• Whether the base has been revised, or the figures are marked preliminary.
• That components add up to the total (the 14 Uzbek regional figures to UZS 71.39 trillion; Pulse's member totals, which did not).
• The currency, the exchange rate's source and date, and the price basis.
• The next release date in the publisher's own calendar.

The standard every piece meets

• Every figure with publisher, label, period, unit and base, linked where it first appears.
• At least two figures compared in the first paragraph, with the arithmetic in the same paragraph.
• A two-row 'What rose, what fell' table, each row sourced.
• A 'How we counted' paragraph whenever any figure is the column's own, with inputs and operation.
• Nominal or real stated for every growth rate.
• A components-to-total check, with any mismatch stated.
• The next release date from the publisher's calendar, or 'not dated' with the evidence.
• No cell without a source; 'not published' for gaps.
• At least two primary sources.

Regular features

• The Wednesday data piece.
• 5G Scorecard (quarterly; next edition in the first week of February 2027).
• Data Centre Pipeline (monthly; next edition in December 2026).
• Spectrum Calendar (rolling; updated as dates move).
• Release Calendar (proposed): a standing page of the next dates of every dataset the column follows.
• Between editions: short notes on which counts changed since the last franchise edition.

How it writes

• What rose, what fell: Every piece
• How we counted: Every piece with a figure of our own
• Wednesday data piece: Wednesdays; the quarterly 5G Scorecard and monthly Data Centre Pipeline run in the slot

When the data is thin

Its own arithmetic is labelled 'on Link Budget's arithmetic' with the inputs and the operation. A calculation that depends on an assumption says so in the sentence ('if both rates are nominal'). Where a source's components do not sum to its total, both are printed and the note says the publisher does not explain the difference. It refuses to divide figures that are not on one basis, and writes 'not published' in an empty cell rather than estimating.

When official figures disagree

Link Budget tests a claim against a series. A target of 295 MW sits beside the 30.7 MW a third-party directory counts as operating, with the ratio, its inputs and a caveat about the directory; a deputy minister's coverage figure sits beside the statistics office's table that does not measure coverage at all. It never calls a claim misleading; it publishes the base and the sum and lets readers judge.

Left to other columns

Backhaul

Single-document news, events, votes, tenders

Takes a dataset after Backhaul has reported the headline; gives Backhaul a label and base check before a news piece quotes a statistic, and feeds the Week Ahead with release dates. Does not report single-document news, events or votes.

Dark Fibre

What a figure means for strategy, policy, leverage or price; reading several documents together

Supplies the tables and the like-for-like series that Dark Fibre reads across documents. Says what a number is and how it moved, never what it means for strategy, policy or price.

Tuning Fork

Counting rules as newsroom policy; corrections

Proposes counting rules (which 5G count, which coverage base) for Tuning Fork to publish as standards notes. Applies published standards; does not announce newsroom policy.

Landing Point

Route capacity, cable status and the Capacity Tracker

Counts traffic exchange, IXP coverage and statistics on international bandwidth as datasets. Route capacity in Tbps, cable status and the Capacity Tracker are Landing Point's; Link Budget uses its status words.

• Forecasts of subscribers, revenue or prices: Not written by any column; Link Budget reports published forecasts only as the publisher's own.

Terms used in this column